Tongwei (600438): Steady Leadership Level and Continuous Growth Expected
event.Company at 10.25 The third quarter report for 2019 was announced, and the first three quarters achieved operating income of 280.25 ppm, an increase of 31 in ten years.03%; net profit attributable to mother 22.430,000 yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.24%; Segmented by quarter, Q3 achieved operating income of 119 in the quarter.10,000 yuan, an increase of 33 in ten years.32%; net profit attributable to mother 7.92 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.02%. Silicon material: The effect of new capacity is gradually emerging.According to the company’s semi-annual report, the company’s restructuring of 2 can achieve full production and sales of high-purity crystalline silicon production capacity, Baotou and Leshan each 2.5Emerging manufacturing has reached 100 tons / day output in March 2019, and the production cost meets the established target of less than 4 million tons / ton. The proportion of single crystal materials will be successively in Q3-Q4 2019.Reached a high efficiency level of 80% -85%; According to PVInfolink, the price in the third quarter was stable, and the dense material was maintained at 75-76 yuan / KG, and the cauliflower material was maintained at 57-60 yuan / KG. Considering the company’s silicon material production time in 19 yearsAs the proportion of single crystal materials climbs, we believe that the effect of new production capacity has not been fully reflected in 19 years. Looking forward to 20 years, we believe that the price of silicon materials will remain stable, and the full use of new production capacity will drive the growth of silicon materials business. Battery: The price rose and rebounded, and continued to expand against the market to consolidate the leading range.According to PVInfolink, the highest price / average price of single crystal PERC batteries is 1 from the beginning of 3 quarters.15/1.12 yuan / W dropped to 0 at the end of the third quarter.95/0.91 yuan / week, we think the fourth quarter is the peak season for domestic installation, which is expected to improve the industry ‘s prosperity. The price of battery chips has recently stabilized. It is expected that prices will stabilize and rise in the fourth quarter. According to the company ‘s semi-annual report, the company launched the fourth phase of Chengdu andThe first phase of Meishan’s high-efficiency crystalline silicon battery project is expected to be completed and put into operation from the end of 2019 to the first half of 2020. By then, the company’s solar cell production capacity will expand to 20GW. We believe that the company will continue to expand against the market during the relatively low price of battery cells.It can show the company’s confidence in its own cost control and consolidate the leading 深圳桑拿网 position. 20 years of domestic demand growth can be expected.We believe that due to the implementation of the “bid” policy in the first year of PV in 19, the formulation of related policies passed over time, and the final bidding result was at 7.Launching on 11th, resulting in a short installation time window, some demand may not be completed in 19 years and it will continue to 20 years, and the 20-year policy has a certain coherence. The probability of policy implementation is significantly earlier than 19 years, and the bidding demand for two years is expected.Superimposed to help the industry grow. Profit forecast and investment rating.We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-21 will be 27.96, 40.39, 53.00 ppm, EPS is 0.72, 1.04, 1.36 yuan; with reference to comparable valuations in the same industry in 19 years, according to 20-25 times PE in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 14.40-18.00 yuan, given the “preliminary market” rating. risk warning.Policy fluctuations; increased competition; replacement of new technologies; product price fluctuations.