23/03/2020

Antarctic e-commerce (002127) 18 years & 19Q1 review: Expansion of high-performance categories and multi-platform development potential future potential!

The company announced its 18 annual report and 19Q1 quarterly report: ① 18th anniversary: revenue 33.

53 ppm / + 240.

12%, mainly due to the integration of the time of consolidation in November 17; net profit attributable to mothers8.

8.6 billion / +65.

92%, deducting 杭州桑拿网 non-performance 8.

4.1 billion / + 67.

80%, performance continued to grow at a high rate in line with the data of the Navy Express.

② In terms of breakdown: Antarctic e-commerce’s main business achieved revenue of 10 years in 18 years.

4 ppm / + 39%, net profit attributable to mother 7.

59 ppm / + 50%; Time Connected 18 years revenue 23.

200 million, net profit attributable to mother 1.

28 ppm, exceeding the Air Force’s 1.

$ 1.7 billion in performance commitments.

③19Q1: Realized revenue 8.

2.4 billion / + 63.

40%, of which, the company’s main business brand comprehensive service income and dealer brand licensing service income

2.9 billion / + 55.

36%; 19Q1 achieved net profit attributable to mothers1.

2.2 billion / + 36.

73%, of which the company’s main business in 19Q1 achieved net profit attributable 杭州夜网论坛 to the mother of 91.74 million yuan / + 50.

79%, Time Connect 19Q1 contributed 30.31 million yuan in performance.

Antarctic people category extension + Cardile rapid expansion, the company’s 18-year GMV increased by 65%.

Company 18 years GMV205.

2.1 billion / + 65.

5%, 19GMV target of 300 million US dollars, is expected to continue to achieve high growth.

The company’s 18-year monetization rate is about 4.

57%, about 17 years 5.

The slight decrease of 15% was due to the company’s initiative to exploit new platforms and new platforms. The monetization rate of mature products is still at 5?
The 6% level remained stable.

18 years of comprehensive brand service and dealer authorization income9.

3.8 billion / + 46.

09%, gross margin 94.

11% /-0.

74pct; revenue from mobile internet marketing business was 23.

16 ppm, gross profit margin 6.

89% /-3.

24pct.

1) By brand segmentation: Antarctic brand realizes GMV 177.
5.3 billion / + 62.
82%; Cardile brand achieved GMV 23.

34 ppm / +83.

71%.

2) According to the breakdown of the platform: in Ali, JD.com, the GMV achieved by Pinduoduo is 146.

03 ppm / +64.

19%, 35.

60 ppm / + 40.

42%, 17.

63 ppm / + 153.

00%.

3) Breakdown by brand: Underwear (accounting for 30% of the total GMV), men’s clothing (accounting for 16% of the total GMV), home textiles (accounting for 15% of the total GMV), children’s clothing, women’s clothing, mother and baby, personal health, luggage, Footwear and other categories still show better growth, accounting for about 90% of all categories GMV.

4) The number of customers: The number of the company’s dealers increased from 3427 at the end of 17 to 4,186 at the end of 18, the number of online stores also increased from 4,442 at the end of 17 to 5,535 at the end of 18, and the number of suppliers increased from 846 at the end ofBy the end of 18 years, the number of the three partners continued to grow rapidly, verifying the company’s brand competitiveness.

5) Time interconnection business: The newly expanded supplier VIVO in 18 years has become the largest supplier of Time interconnection in 2018.

The cooperation volume of mainstream mainstream media applications Bao, Xiaomi, Today’s Headlines and small and medium-sized traffic platforms also steadily increased, and the overall revenue grew rapidly.

The consolidation caused corresponding changes in gross profit margin and period expense ratio, and the overall 18-year ROE increased to 23.

71%.

1) The highest 18: the overall gross profit margin 34.

47% /-35.

58pct, mainly due to time interconnection.

The overall period expense ratio is 6.

29% /-2.

02pct; of which, the sales expense ratio is 3.

31% / + 0.

17pct, the slight increase was mainly due to the company’s sales staff compensation and advertising expenses increased in the current period compared with the previous period, and due to the interconnection of consolidation time;

70% /-1.

39 points, mainly due to the company’s management personnel compensation and service expenses increased compared with the previous period; R & D expense ratio1.

13% /-1.

86pct, the company continued to increase the R & D expenses to 37.8 million yuan / + 28%, but the revenue growth rate was reduced to a decline in expense ratio; financial expense ratio was 0.

15% / + 1.

06pct, mainly due to time interconnection and mutual assistance to increase loan input income.

18-year net interest rate 26.

46% /-27.

87pct, is also mainly caused by time interconnection.

Company 18 years ROE (diluted) 23.

71% / + 6.

03pct.

The company’s main business receivables in the past 18 years have further improved, and prepaid accounts have been repeatedly reduced.

The company’s net receivables at the end of 18 years7.

2.5 billion / + 42.
74%, down from 10Q18.
80,000 yuan has decreased, and the growth rate is less than the 18-year revenue increase (+ 240%).

Among them, the accounts receivable of the brand integrated service business of the company headquarters was 4.

1.8 billion / + 36.

04%; accounts receivable for factoring business is 1.

67 ppm / + 244.

90%; time receivables at the end of 18 years1.

2000000000.

The company has prepaid accounts at the end of 18 years.

5.3 billion, of which the company’s headquarters prepayment was 265.

97 thousand yuan / -33.

5%; Time Connect prepaid account is 5.

50 ppm / + 321.

47%.

Core logic: 19Q1GMV high growth + continuous expansion of new categories + Pinduoduo platform power, Antarctic e-commerce fast-moving territory set sailing!

1) Industry factors: The current increase in demand for cost-effective products + continuous increase in brand awareness, helping cost-effective brands such as “Antarctic” and “Cadilla” to integrate downwards and replace some mid-to-high-end brand shares, which is more consistentMass market demand trends.

2) Dealers: Competition between online stores is intensifying, customer acquisition costs continue to increase, and services such as e-commerce agency operations and marketing promotion are fully highlighted.

The company has many years of brand influence and e-commerce strength of “Antarctic people”. It has obvious effects on dealers and suppliers without strong brand assistance, and can achieve win-win in the upstream and downstream industry chains. The potential of the asset-light model is expected; 3)The company itself: The short-term 19Q1 overall GMV growth rate + 53% is better than the long-term growth rate guidance (+ 46%), and the medium- and long-term growth space under the dual force of product channels is promising!

① Product side: Look at the initial sinking and horizontal expansion of the main brands.

The company’s future strategy is to extend more third-level category explosions under the existing strong second-level category. Horizontally, it has brand awareness and marketing strength. It has expanded from traditional underwear and home textiles to healthy living, mother and baby, luggage, etc.New areas, to achieve the expansion of first-level categories; ② channel side: see a lot of new platforms such as Pinduoduo and Vipshop.

In addition to maintaining the high growth of the Alibaba GMV, the company has always positioned and highly overlaps with Pinduoduo. In the future, with the continued expansion of the Pinduoduo long-tail market and the leading advantages of the Ali system, the platform side is also expected to be a company GMV Continue to grow and do good support, continue to recommend!

Investment advice: Buy-A investment rating.

We expect the company’s attributable net profit for 2019-2020 to be 12 respectively.

1.6 billion / 16.

53 ppm / 21.

8.2 billion, with growth rates of 37%, 36%, and 32%, with outstanding growth; 6-month target price is 15.

00 yuan, corresponding to 19 years of PE 30x.

Risk reminders: 1) The layout of the brand matrix is blocked and the influence of the brand is reduced; 2) The development and changes of the platform channels, the cumulative increase of GMV is less than expected; 3) The time interconnection operation is less than expected.