21/03/2020

Jiangsu Guoxin (002608): The increase in holdings of large shareholders currently at a low performance reflects long-term development confidence

Event: The company issued a plan to increase the holdings of controlling shareholders.

The controlling shareholder of Jiangsu Guoxin Group intends to increase its shareholding in the company’s shares to no less than RMB 100 million and no more than RMB 200 million within 6 months from December 24, 2019.

  Investment points: The increase in holdings by major shareholders reflects the company’s long-term development prospects.

The company’s shareholding structure is centralized, and the controlling shareholder Guoxin Group directly holds 杭州夜网 the company70.

With 72% of shares, major shareholders continue to increase their holdings in the context of already high shareholdings, reflecting their optimism about the company’s long-term development prospects.

  A number of factors have led to a noticeable number of thermal power utilization hours in Jiangsu Province in 2019, which is expected to pick up in 2020.

From January to November 2019, the average utilization hours of thermal power in Jiangsu Province was 341 hours apart, a drop in the forefront of the country, which was affected by many factors.

On the demand side, the province’s power consumption gradually increased from January to November.

2%, also at a high level in the eastern coastal provinces.

We judge that it is mainly due to the initial accident in Xiangshui Industrial Park and the impact of economic conditions at home and abroad.

In terms of months, the growth rate of power consumption in Jiangsu Province remained relatively high in the first quarter, and the low growth rate in the second and third quarters dragged down the gradual demand for electricity.Annual growth.

22% and 5.

72%.

At the same time, due to the highest rainfall this year, the summer temperature is relatively low, to a certain extent, suppressing the growth rate of electricity consumption of the tertiary industry and urban and rural residents.

On the supply side, the nation ‘s hours of hydropower utilization this year are relatively high in history. The amount of electricity transmitted by hydropower to the east has generally caused a local shock in the eastern coastal provinces. Water may have declined since 2020.

Taken together, we judge the predicted marginal improvement of thermal power utilization hours in Jiangsu Province in 2020.

  The risk of electricity marketization in Jiangsu Province has been fully released, and electricity prices in 2020 will be basically worry-free.

Looking at the countrywide, Jiangsu’s power marketization process is leading. In the first three quarters of 2019, mid-to-long-term power transactions accounted for more than 50% of the total electricity consumption of the entire society. At present, the market share of coal-based power transactions is close to 100%.

From the annual trading results, Jiangsu’s annual trading power in 2020 was 2420.

700 million kWh, with an average price of 365.

56 yuan / MWh; compared with 2341 in 2019.

100 million kilowatt hours, with an average price of 369.

At RMB 18 / MWh, the annual transaction scale will be flat in 2020, and the spread will increase slightly3.

6% / kWh.

From the perspective of coal prices, affected by the double killing of thermal power supply and demand, coal prices in Jiangsu Province have fallen month by month this year, and the average coal price index for the first 11 months has fallen by 9.

4% (56 yuan), calculated based on the coal consumption of 300 g / kWh power supply, the cost of electricity consumption decreased by 2.

35 points.

In the context of loosening overall supply and demand and a sharp decline in coal prices, the trading spread in 2020 will only expand slightly, reflecting that market traders are more rational, and coal power has been fully marketized. We judge that Jiangsu ‘s electricity price risks have been fully released.

  The Jiangsu-Jinjiang energy unit has been put into production one after another, and Jindian Power’s entry into the Soviet Union is expected to contribute to the increase in performance.

The company and some Shanxi province-owned state-owned enterprises and energy central enterprises jointly established Sujin Energy have successfully consolidated this year.

The total installed capacity of Sujin Energy is 3.96 million kilowatts (6 * 660,000 kilowatts), which is inserted into the pithead power plant and supercritical and ultra-low-emission units, and the generated power will be realized through the Yanhuai DC.

Two of the currently planned 6 units have been successfully connected to the grid for power generation, and four units under construction are expected to start production in 2020, which is expected to gradually contribute to performance growth and further increase the company’s market share in the Jiangsu power market.

  Earnings forecast and rating: Based on comprehensive utilization hours and fuel costs, we lower the company’s net profit forecast for the mother to 2019-2021 to 30.

7, 32.

6, 35.

300 million, 33 before adjustment.

67, 34.

82, 37.2.6 billion, the current sustainable corresponding 佛山桑拿网 PE is 9, 9 and 8 times respectively.

The company’s estimated value and profit continued to improve, maintaining the “overweight” rating.